Yo no estaria tan seguro, hasta el Martes e incluso el Miercoles, y ni tan siquiera asi estaria seguro del todo.
Miembros de la web mas expertos en la tematica de Huracanes, seguramente lo explicaran mejor, en el sentido de que aparte de lo que se ha comentado, añadiria a otro interlocutor indirecto, que dependiendo de su evolucion - involucion,  puede maniatar a la Alta de las Azores -fijandola en su feudo.  Es muy dificil y complicado, pero puede ser... . Leslie, con el Azoriano de stopper, se veria obligada a descender hacia el Archipielago, y las modelizaciones, darian un vuelco parecido al de esta mañana, pero a la inversa... .
Atencion a este hasta ahora semi desconocido interlocutor , la flamante Storm Tropical Michael, con opciones de conversion en Huracan, y su posterior desarrollo/evolucion, aun puede dar deparar alguna que otra sorpresa, quien sabe, si con trascendencia en el Archipielago.


Miami, 7 oct (EFE).- La depresión tropical que se movilizaba hacia Florida por el golfo de México se ha convertido en tormenta tropical Michael, informó hoy el Centro Nacional de Huracanes (NHC).

En su más reciente boletín, el NHC indica que la tormenta está a 130 millas (205 km) de Cozumel, México, y a 190 millas (305 km) del suroeste de la punta occidental de Cuba y se desplaza en dirección norte noreste cerca a 3 millas por hora (6 km / h).
La entidad con sede en Miami pronostica que Michael se moverá sobre el Canal de Yucatán el lunes, luego a través del golfo de México oriental hasta el martes por la noche, y se acercará a la costa noreste del Golfo el miércoles.
El NHC indica que se espera un fortalecimiento adicional durante los próximos días, y se pronostica que Michael se convertirá en huracán el lunes por la noche o el martes... .

GFS repite/es muy similar, en los tres paneles que ha publicado.
Leslie nos queda al norte, las Altas Presiones no le permiten colarse en el Archipielago// la mega-vaguada tampoco termina de desengancharlo, evitando que caiga a plomo sobre el Archipielago    - y acude como una exhalacion hacia la Peninsula Iberica.





El Domingo, pone el punto de mira en Galicia - oh.-
A ver proximas actualizaciones, y la salida del centro europeo, entre otros... .

Lo citabamos, a veces pecamos de pesadez, pero este/esta Leslie es mucha Leslie, y por ello comentaba que hasta mañana Martes, el proximo Miercoles y ni siquiera asi, iba a estar asegurado el descarte u la llegada del Ciclon tropical.

 - Escopetazo antologico del Centro Europeo.
Enesimo y espectacular volantazo

Segundo panel de la jornada.
Fulmina la llegada del Sistema a la Iberica.  Voraz Azoriano .... Astucia surrealista, si finalmente se acaba dando del ciclon tropical, que lo ve venir/ que ve la llegada desesperada de la Alta de las Azores, y se desengancha

 
Se desengancha y de que manera.
Captura contundente con cerrojazo anticiclonico a la antigua usanza, y el Sistema queda flotando/acorralado-con urgencias en la mismisima vertical del Archipielago, buscando una salida retrograda/ a la inversa a vida o muerte, hacia nuestro oeste.


 - Mas actualizaciones, mas locura, mas incertidumbre por favor... . y esto no va a quedar asi .

Cosas que hemos comentado en esa entrada, las han metido también los predictores del CNH:

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

For the fourth (and hopefully final) time as a tropical or
subtropical cyclone, Leslie has crossed 48W.  The convective pattern
of the tropical storm hasn't changed significantly over the past
several hours, though there is some evidence of a convective band
attempting to wrap around the western side of the storm.  The
initial intensity is still 45 kt, based on a blend of the most
recent current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS
SATCON.

There has been little change in the intensity forecast.  Just about
all of the typically reliable intensity models still call for
Leslie to gradually strengthen over the next 3 days, despite
marginal SSTs.  All of the dynamical models call for Leslie to
become a hurricane once again by 72 h, but SHIPS and LGEM
are a little lower.  The official intensity forecast remains near
the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and calls for Leslie to become a
hurricane by the end of the week.

Leslie has continued to move east-southeastward, now at 12 kt, and
the global models are in good agreement that this motion will
continue through today. After that time, most of the guidance
generally shows that Leslie will separate from a mid-latitude
trough, causing the tropical storm to turn toward the southeast or
south-southeast and slow down. A day or so after that, another
mid-latitude trough will approach from the west and cause Leslie to
accelerate toward the east-northeast.  The timing of Leslie's
acceleration is still very uncertain, and the model spread beyond
72 h remains very high.  Until the spread decreases, I don't feel
confident making a big change to the forecast, so the official track
forecast has only been slightly tweaked to bring it closer to HCCA
and TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 34.6N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 33.6N  45.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 32.0N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 30.2N  42.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 29.1N  41.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 29.5N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 33.0N  28.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 39.0N  18.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

El informe de ahora
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/082048.shtml?

000
WTNT43 KNHC 082048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

GOES-16 data indicate that Leslie has a small central dense overcast
with an inner core trying to form on the last few visible images.
Convection has also deepened somewhat, and the overall cloud pattern
is becoming more symmetric.  All signs point to strengthening and
the Dvorak estimates are increasing.   So for Leslie's 50th
advisory, the wind speed is raised to 50 kt, near the CIMSS ADT
value.

Leslie is moving southeastward at about 12 kt; an unusually fast
pace for this direction.  The storm is forecast to slow down
somewhat and turn toward the south-southeast during the next day or
two as the cyclone separates from the mid-latitude flow temporarily
and becomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.
Fortunately the ridge isn't strong enough for Leslie to move
westward again, and the models all eject Leslie northeastward
because of a deepening trough over the eastern Atlantic.  There has
been a notable trend southward through 48 hours, and the official
forecast follows that idea.   The forecast becomes a nightmare at
long range, however, with very little agreement on whether Leslie is
accelerated ahead of the trough, like the latest FV3GFS, or gets
left behind again, like the ECMWF.  These differences result in a
1200 mile spread of the historically reliable models by day 5,
resulting in a very low confidence forecast. The bulk of the
guidance is now indicating that the "left behind" option is becoming
more likely, but continuity dictates making forecast changes in
smaller chunks. So the official forecast is much slower and farther
south at long range, but is well north of the latest model
consensus.  Further southward adjustments could be required if model
trends continue.

Interestingly, model guidance is becoming more certain on Leslie
becoming a hurricane again as it moves over warmer (but still
marginally warm) waters, into a lighter-shear and higher mid-level
humidity enviroment.  This makes some sense given that the track is
shifting southward and Leslie should finally move over a warmer
portion of the subtropical Atlantic that it hasn't touched yet. Thus
the intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, and the
corrected-consensus models even suggest category 2 as a peak
intensity is possible.  By day 5, increasing shear and cooler waters
should weaken Leslie, and it could be undergoing extratropical
transition at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 33.8N  45.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 32.5N  44.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 30.6N  43.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 28.9N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 28.2N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 29.5N  37.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 33.5N  26.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 37.0N  17.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

La salida de las 00 del GFS es un auténtico chiste Acerca a LESLIE a Canarias, pero da un giro repentino para volverse a internar en aguas tropicales y poner rumbo oeste... Así, LESLIE se mantendría como ciclón tropical ni se sabe la de días... y no habría impacto ni en la Península ni en Canarias



Mientras tanto, el europeo, lo manda a Marruecos...