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Autor Tema: Tormenta tropical BEATRIZ 02E, Pacifico Noreste - Mexico, mayo 2017  (Leído 3004 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 312035
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
400 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

The convective cloud pattern of the depression has improved a little
during the past several hours.  However, partial ASCAT overpasses
and visible satellite imagery suggest the circulation is elongated
east-to-west with the center likely near the western edge of the
central convective mass.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB have increased to 30 kt, so that will be the initial
intensity.

The cyclone has been moving erratically, with the initial motion a
somewhat uncertain 045/2.  A mid- to upper-level trough seen in
water vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the
cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36-48 h.  After that,
there is still divergence between the models on whether the
cyclone, or its remnants, will continue northeastward over Mexico
or stall near or south of the Mexican coast.  A major change since
the previous advisory is that the ECMWF now calls for the system to
move northeastward and make landfall in Mexico in about 24 h, which
is faster than some of the other models.  However, the UKMET and
the UK Ensemble mean still show a westward turn after 36 h or so.
Given the change in the ECMWF, the new track forecast is shifted
north of the previous track and now calls for the center to move
onto the Mexican coast in 36-48 h.  Additional changes in the
forecast track may be needed tonight if current model trends
continue.

The intensity forecast is low confidence.  The environment of
moderate shear and warm water should allow gradual strengthening.
This is reflected in the intensity guidance and forecast, which
call for the system to become a tropical storm in about 24 h.
However, the current structure and the possibility of land
interaction should limit intensification, and an alternative
scenario based on the faster ECMWF landfall is that the system does
not become a tropical storm before reaching the Mexican coast.
The new forecast track requires significant changes in the latter
part of the intensity forecast, which now calls for the cyclone to
dissipate by 120 h due to passage over Mexico.  It should be noted
that if the center moves farther inland than currently forecast it
should result in earlier dissipation.

Heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the biggest
threats from this system even if it makes landfall as a tropical
storm.  A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of
the coast of Mexico tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 13.9N  97.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 14.2N  97.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 14.7N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 15.1N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 15.7N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  03/1800Z 16.0N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
« Última modificación: Junio 01, 2017, 23:25:39 pm por Gale »

Desconectado Gale

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Re:Depresion tropical 02E, Pacifico Noreste - Mexico, mayo 2017
« Respuesta #1 en: Junio 01, 2017, 08:23:52 am »
La depresión tropical 02E sigue cerca de la costa de Oaxaca produciendo lluvias torrenciales, principal FMA de este ciclón tropical por ahora.



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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 010531
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 97.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Puerto Escondido

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 97.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone
is expected to move inland across the state of Oaxaca later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of
Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican state of Oaxaca
with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches possible.  This rainfall
is likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area later this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Re:Depresion tropical 02E, Pacifico Noreste - Mexico, mayo 2017
« Respuesta #2 en: Junio 01, 2017, 20:55:57 pm »
Se forma la #TS #Beatriz a 65 km al OSO de #PuertoÁngel #Oaxaca.
Tocara tierra en la tarde-noche con intensas precipitaciones






 



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