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Autor Tema: Gran huracan LEE 14L categoria 3, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017  (Leído 4329 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Ya tenemos otro ciclón tropical en la RDP, al suroeste de Cabo Verde, aunque no está previsto que sea un sucesor de IRMA o JOSE, dado que no va a encontrarse las mismas condiciones propicias para intensificarse... Veremos si se convierte en LEE, ya que la 96L también compite por ese nombre...

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000
WTCA44 TJSJ 150926
TCPSP4

BOLETIN
Depresion Tropical Catorce Advertencia Numero  2
Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL       AL142017
Traduccion por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
500 AM AST viernes 15 de septiembre de 2017

...DEPRESION TROPICAL MOVIENDOSE HACIE EL OESTE SOBRE EL EXTREMO
ESTE DEL ATLANTICO...
...SE PRONOSTICA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL...



RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 500 AM UTC...0900 UTC
-------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...10.6 NORTE 27.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 435 MI...700 KM SSO DE ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O O 270 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
---------------------------------- 
A las 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), el centro de la Depresion Tropical
Catorce estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 10.6 norte, longitud
27.3 oeste. La depresion se mueve hacia el oeste a cerca de 15 mph
(24 km/h), y este movimiento se anticipa continue durante los
proximos dias. 

Vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
rafagas mas altas. Se pronostica que la depresion se convierta en
Tormenta Tropical mas tarde hoy o manana.


La presion minima central estimada es de 1008 mb (29.77 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------------
Ninguno.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
Proxima advertencia completa a las 1100 AM AST.

$$

Pronosticador Avila
Traduccion Cotto
« Última modificación: Septiembre 27, 2017, 19:32:07 pm por Gale »

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Re:Depresión tropical 14L, RDP, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #1 en: Septiembre 16, 2017, 11:49:24 am »
La DT14 sigue discurriendo por la RDP, sin pena ni gloria..................... Quizás termine recibiendo nombre, pero no se le augura una vida muy intensa... :P

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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

The center of the depression continues to be located on the north
side of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only
expanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed
and support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the
opportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36
hours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the
eastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone.
The NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but
weakening should begin thereafter.
  The system should degenerate
into a remnant low in about 4 days.

The depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow
mid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the
shear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this
should result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest.
The NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48
hours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the
guidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC
forecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of
the ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 12.6N  32.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 12.6N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 12.6N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 12.7N  35.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 13.3N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 15.2N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 17.0N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z 18.0N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

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Re:Tormenta tropical LEE 14L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #2 en: Septiembre 23, 2017, 05:06:30 am »
No le hicimos mucho caso a este ciclón tropical y, tras disiparse, ha renacido de sus cenizas...

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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

Several microwave overpasses between 2100 and 2200 UTC indicated
that Lee was becoming better organized, at least at the mid-levels.
In particular, a WindSat overpass near 21Z indicated that a
mid-level eye was already forming.  Since that time, however, cloud
tops have warmed, the CDO has shrunk, and a GPM overpass around 0100
UTC showed that most of the convection is currently confined to the
southeast semicircle of the tropical storm. The UW-CIMSS ADT
supports an intensity of 35 kt, and the TAFB Dvorak analyst
indicated that the subjective classification would have been higher,
if the technique wasn't constrained by the fact that classifications
on Lee only recently restarted.  Based on these data, the initial
intensity has been increased to 35 kt.

The intensity forecast for Lee is highly uncertain.  The tropical
storm is very small, and small cyclones often quickly strengthen or
weaken.  Furthermore, Lee is small enough that some of our models
(and many of our observing platforms) may have trouble resolving the
inner core of the storm.  Given the current convective state of Lee,
significant strengthening in the short term seems unlikely.
However, the cyclone is expected to be in a fairly unstable, low
shear environment for at least the next 3 days, so it is possible
that rapid intensification could occur at some time during that
period.  On the other hand, I can't rule out that the cyclone could
dissipate entirely, as depicted by the GFS, within a couple days.
For now, my forecast is closest to the HWRF for the first 72 h,
since that model tends to do well in low-shear environments and
should have sufficient resolution to model Lee's core.  After that
time, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models.

Lee has continued to move north around 6 kt.  Little change has been
made to the track forecast, and Lee is still forecast to move around
a subtropical ridge for the next 72 h.  At days 4 and 5, a ridge
building between Lee and Maria to the west should cause a turn more
toward the south, as long as Lee is sufficiently deep to be steered
by that feature.  The forecast continues to be close to the ECMWF,
since it is still the global model with the strongest representation
of Lee, in line with the NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 31.5N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 32.2N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 32.5N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 32.4N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 32.1N  45.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 31.3N  43.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 30.0N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 29.5N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN

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Philippe Papin‏ @pppapin  39 minHace 39 minutos
Despite being a tiny storm, #Lee may already be developing an inner core. Latest #GMI 89GHz color has hints of a mid-level eye developing.


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Philippe Papin‏ @pppapin  57 minHace 57 minutos
 #Lee's tiny CDO is reminiscent of another #midget #TC that holds the world record for smallest TS winds radius: #Marco (2008).

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Re:Tormenta tropical LEE 14L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #3 en: Septiembre 23, 2017, 18:22:09 pm »
Muy curiosos estos casos de pequeñas tormentas tropicales, que en tiempos pasados hubieran sido invisibles completamente. Son los llamados tiny-tim storms...

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Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

Lee remains a compact tropical cyclone as indicated by a 20-kt wind
report at 1200Z from ship LAQX5, located only 70 nmi east of the
center. A 0943Z WindSAT pass had a few 40-45 uncontaminated wind
vectors in the southwestern quadrant, so the intensity has been
conservatively increased to 40 kt, which is closer to the satellite
intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion is a slow drift toward the north or 360/02 kt,
based primarily on microwave satellite fixes. The global and
regional models are in general agreement that Lee will move slowly
at 5 kt or less for the next 5 days, and either make a wide or a
tight anticyclonic turn back toward the west after 72 h due to a
building high pressure ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a
stationary upper-level low located a few hundred nmi to the south.
The GFS makes the widest turn, whereas the ECMWF makes the tightest
turn; the remainder of the model guidance lies somewhere between
those two extremes. Until the model guidance becomes more
convergent, the official NHC forecast track will remain basically
down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the blend of the
TCVA, TVCX, and HCCA consensus models.

Earlier WindSAT and SSMI/S microwave data showed that Lee possessed
an 8-10 nmi diameter eye-like feature in both the low- and
mid-levels, indicating that the cyclone has a well-defined
inner-core wind field, albeit quite small.
The deep-layer vertical
wind shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to decrease
to 5-10 kt during the next 48 hours or so while Lee remains over
SSTs of about 27.5 deg C. In addition, upper-level temperatures are
currently running, and are expected to remain, about 3 deg C colder
than normal, which should ensure sufficient instability for the
generation of inner-core thunderstorm activity through the entire
forecast period. Based on the combination of these favorable dynamic
and thermodynamic conditions, Lee is forecast to steadily develop
into a hurricane by 48-72 hours, with the only inhibiting factor
being occasional intrusions of very dry mid-level air. However, the
strong instability/CAPE that will be available should allow for deep
convection to more or less persist near the center until modest
westerly shear begins to affect the cyclone by 72-120 hours, during
which time a slow weakening trend is expected. The official
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and is
close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 31.9N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 32.2N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 32.3N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 31.9N  47.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 31.3N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 30.5N  45.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 29.9N  45.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 30.5N  47.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Re:Tormenta tropical LEE 14L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #4 en: Septiembre 23, 2017, 18:30:02 pm »
Simulación de imágenes IR+RGB (temperatura de los topes nubosos) de la tormenta tropical LEE, según el modelo americano HWRF. Llegaría a ser huracán...


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Re:Tormenta tropical LEE 14L, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #5 en: Septiembre 23, 2017, 18:33:08 pm »
¿Qué son los ciclones tiny-tim o tiny-tim storms? Ciclones tropicales MUY compactos:
http://www.cazatormentas.com/los-tiny-tims-y-la-mejora-en-la-deteccion-de-ciclones-tropicales-marginales/


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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #6 en: Septiembre 24, 2017, 10:39:09 am »
Anoche parecía que LEE se deshacía.......... y coge y se convierte en otro huracán ;D ;D ;D ¡Flipante!

Por otro lado, demuestra que el modelo americano HWRF trabaja muy bien con los ciclones tropicales...

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Hurricane Lee Special Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye is developing in
Lee's central dense overcast.  This special advisory is thus being
issued to make Lee a hurricane with 65 kt winds.
  The intensity
forecast has been significantly increased based on the current
intensity and trends, and the initial wind radii have been somewhat
modified. However, the track forecast is unchanged from the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0630Z 31.9N  50.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #7 en: Septiembre 24, 2017, 10:48:27 am »
Aquí podemos observar la tremenda evolución. Además, según el modelo europeo, se va a intensificar más. Ya veremos. Y otra cosa entretenida que apunta es a que sus restos podrían llegar hasta la Península en forma de humedad para producir lluvias en el noroeste...


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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #8 en: Septiembre 24, 2017, 11:47:19 am »
LEE tiene un ojo minúsculo... otro caso de pinhole eye.


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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #9 en: Septiembre 24, 2017, 13:00:08 pm »
La presencia satelital de LEE es sencillamente impresionante... Imagen VIS de alta resolución proporcionada por el GOES-16.

Parece que hay un dry-slot en su sector oriental que ya veremos cómo afecta al ciclón en las próximas horas. Estos ciclones tan pequeños suelen sufrir fuertes fluctuaciones de intensidad. Aún así, podría ser otro "major" en las próximas horas...


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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #10 en: Septiembre 24, 2017, 23:08:28 pm »
Pocas novedades durante la tarde...

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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense
overcast.  SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates
are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that
remains 80 kt.

The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued
hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low
vertical shear and warm waters
.  However, the HWRF and COAMPS
dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps
because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its
own cold wake in a couple of days.  By day 4 or 5, the environment
should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee
and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of
Hurricane Maria.
  The official intensity forecast is in between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.

The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt.  The
hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west
during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets
re-established north of Lee.  By day 4 the system should recurve
and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets
picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track model
consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated
faster toward the northeast by day 5.  The official track
forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.

Lee is a tiny hurricane.  The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical
storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the
center.  The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane
over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN
multi-model scheme.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 31.3N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 31.0N  49.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 30.7N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 30.3N  50.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 30.4N  51.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 33.0N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 37.0N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #11 en: Septiembre 25, 2017, 08:39:32 am »
LEE se mantiene cuasi igual que ayer a última hora... deambulando por el Atlántico Central, justo por debajo del umbral de la categoría 2 de huracán.




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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #12 en: Septiembre 25, 2017, 12:41:32 pm »
Amanece sobre el tenaz LEE, sin muchos cambios en las últimas horas. Quizás ha agrandado un poco su ojo, pero nada más. Sigue moviéndose en la misma zona y casi sobre sus propios pasos de ayer...


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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #13 en: Septiembre 25, 2017, 13:05:34 pm »
LEE está todavía lejos del chorro polar, y también lejos de la influencia del subtropical, por lo que tiene una ventana abierta a la intensificación en los próximos 2 días o así. El único impedimento será el afloramiento de aguas frescas al moverse por zonas por las que ya ha estado... Lo que se llama upwelling en inglés.


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Re:Huracan LEE 14L categoria 1, Atlantico Central, septiembre 2017
« Respuesta #14 en: Septiembre 25, 2017, 13:14:57 pm »
El #HuracanLee otro día mas sobre el #Atlántico con vientos de 150 Km/h


 



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