Bien, ya es tormenta tropical este ciclón.............. Se llama NEKI
El boletín de discusión, el nº4,
mantiene la rareza de este ciclón por su origen:WTPA42 PHFO 191505
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009500 AM HST MON OCT 19 2009
THE LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...CURRENTLY MORE THAN 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU
HAWAII...REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. LARGE SPIRALING CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE FEEDING INTO DEEP
TROPICAL CONVECTION THAT IS CLOSE TO THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER...OR LLCC.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS TYPE IS LIKELY A RARE
OCCURRENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS ARE MUCH MORE COMMON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.THEREFORE...
DESPITE THE SLOW...BUT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TYPE
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE ITS POTENTIAL TO
ULTIMATELY BECOME A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DESPITE THE LARGE SIZE AND IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CONTINUED COOLING OF THE
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LLCC IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SATELLITE AGENCIES...PHFO...JTWC
AND SAB...HAD A RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE LOCATIONS OF THE
LLCC. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS AT 0820 UTC SEEMED TO
INDICATE IT WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT MOTION
IS 290/12.
THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES ALSO HAD A RANGE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES. THE LATEST T-NUMBERS RANGED
FROM 1.5 TO 2.5. AN EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0425
UTC INDICATED THERE WERE ALREADY A FEW 35 KT WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE APPARENT LLCC THAT WERE NOT FLAGGED FOR RAIN CONTAMINATION.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ALONG WITH THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C IS NOW UPGRADED
TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. IT HAS RECEIVED THE HAWAIIAN NAME
NEKI...WHICH IS NEXT ON THE LIST OF TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES IN OUR
BASIN.
THE LATEST UW/CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS FOR THREE-C
INDICATES 2 KT FROM 37 DEGREES. NEKI IS SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...AND SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS A RESULT...THE
CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL TRACK FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THREE-C WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN...TCON AND GUNA CONSENSUS FORECASTS.
BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST...NEKI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
CIRA ANALYSIS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO 29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UW/CIMSS
INTENSIFICATION FORECAST INDICATES LOW VALUES OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NEKI/S TRACK. THEREFORE...THESE CONDITIONS ALL
APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE ICON...WHICH BRINGS THE
SYSTEM TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS. NEKI MAY
ACTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER...SINCE THE LATEST SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
THREE-C REMAINS FAR SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...ANYONE IN THE
VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND NEEDS TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE
ADVISORIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES NIKI NEAR THAT ISLAND
WEDNESDAY AS A HURRICANE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 9.5N 159.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 10.5N 161.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.0N 163.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 13.4N 166.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 14.8N 168.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 16.4N 170.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 173.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 19.6N 175.3W 90 KT $$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
Tema: Huracán NEKI 03C - Pacífico Central, Sur de las Hawaii. (Leído 414 veces)