Lo comentaba Torre ayer y anteayer................. Si tenían poco los habitantes de la zona arrasada por el ciclón NARGIS, ahora tienen un sistema rozándoles que también es susceptible de sufrir algún desarrollo, si la interacción con tierra no es acusada. De todos modos, hay buenas tormentas sobre los deltas y estuarios del río Irrawaddy, la más afectada por el anterior ciclón

Pues el sistema se ve bien. Pero lastima que ya esta entrando a tierra

Sigue teniendo buen aspecto este sistema. Se observa buena circulación cerrada...... Sólo la interacción con tierra está impidiendo un desarrollo más importante, afortunadamente para las gentes de los deltas del río Irrawaddy.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6N
96.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 95.7E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 121210Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE PRONOUNCED LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF CONVECTION AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER, MORE RECENTLY, CONVECTION HAS WANED
SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CURRENTLY TRANSITING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YANGON DELTA
REGION OF MYANMAR. OBSERVATIONS FROM YANGON AS OF 131300Z, SUPPORT A
25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES NEAR 1000 MB (3
MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10
KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. A PARTIAL 130301Z
ASCAT IMAGE ALSO INDICATES STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CENTER WITH SUSTAINED EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH, FURTHER PROOF OF
CYCLONIC TURNING. THE CENTER CURRENTLY LIES UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THOUGH THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
OVER LAND, MINIMAL DEGRADATION OF THE LOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE LOW LYING TOPOGRAPHY AND FAIRLY QUICK TRANSIT OVER THE COASTAL
REGION OF SOUTHERN MYANMAR. EMERGENCE INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD WITH THE ONLY LIMITATION BEING TEMPORARY LAND
INTERACTION. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 132030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

Según la discusión sobre este sistema desde el JTWC, el sistema ha mejorado su organización merced a una baja cizalladura del viento y a que la orografía de la región donde descansa ahora mismo el LLCC es muy llano y con poca elevación sobre el nivel del mar. Han ascendido el potencial de desarrollo de un ciclón tropical significativo a BUENO.