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Autor Tema: Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017  (Leído 2342 veces)

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Re:Tormenta tropical NATE 16L, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #15 en: Octubre 06, 2017, 18:46:13 pm »
Así se ve en animación de imágenes VIS de alta resolución del GOES-16


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Re:Tormenta tropical NATE 16L, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #16 en: Octubre 06, 2017, 19:22:28 pm »
La tormenta #Nate en el Atlántico visto por el #Sentinel3 OLCI (instrumento de color tierra y océano)
Via: @CopernicusEMS


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Re:Tormenta tropical NATE 16L, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #17 en: Octubre 06, 2017, 22:31:20 pm »
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Brian McNoldy‏Cuenta verificada
@BMcNoldy
The 1916 Gulf Coast Hurricane looks familiar... I hope #Nate doesn't intensify like it did just before landfall! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Gulf_Coast_hurricane

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Re:Tormenta tropical NATE 16L, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #18 en: Octubre 06, 2017, 22:53:41 pm »
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Eric Fisher‏Cuenta verificada @ericfisher  3 minHace 3 minutos
#Nate is currently over an area of very high ocean heat content. Thankfully not for too long, but intensification inevitable.


Y lo que yo decía a otro meteorólogo: convección profunda intentando rodear el centro...
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Josh Morgerman‏Cuenta verificada @iCyclone  5 minHace 5 minutos
Decent satellite presentation this afternoon. Convection *trying* to wrap around that center. By the way, it's moving fast! #NATE



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Re:Tormenta tropical NATE 16L, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #19 en: Octubre 06, 2017, 23:00:53 pm »
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Eric Fisher‏Cuenta verificada @ericfisher  53 sHace 54 segundos
#Nate stronger at 5pm...winds up to 60mph and pressure down to 993mb. Further intensification likely tonight.


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Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that convection
associated with Nate is becoming better organized, with a strong
convective band now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around
the center.
  Recent data from NOAA buoy 42056 near the center
suggest the central pressure has fallen to near 993 mb, and the
buoy just reported a 1-minute average wind of 49 kt.  Based on
this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative
50 kt.  The next aircraft investigating Nate is scheduled to arrive
near 22Z.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt.  Nate
remains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the
western Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of
high pressure over the western Atlantic.  This combination should
steer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so.
After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes
around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The guidance remains in good agreement
with the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreement
on the speed.  Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, but
slightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for the
center of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northern
Gulf Coast around the 36-h point.  It should be noted that the
ECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track.

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make
landfall there as a hurricane.
  The new intensity forecast, which is
an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance.  Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico.
As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast
of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional
strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET
forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before
landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or
over the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours bringing
direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A
tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a
portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also
possible.

2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of
the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effect
from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in
Florida.  Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation
instructions given by local officials.

3. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion in these
areas.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals of 12 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the
eastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this
weekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these
areas.

5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions
of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud
slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,
Panama, and Belize through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 20.3N  85.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 23.0N  87.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 26.8N  88.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 29.9N  89.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 33.1N  87.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/1800Z 39.5N  78.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/1800Z 43.5N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Re:Tormenta tropical NATE 16L, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #20 en: Octubre 06, 2017, 23:31:47 pm »
Aviso de Huracán lanzado para Nueva Orleans...
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NHC Atlantic Ops‏Cuenta verificada @NHC_Atlantic  9 minHace 9 minutos
Here are the key messages for Tropical Storm #Nate as of 4:00pm CDT.  A Hurricane Warning has been issued for metropolitan New Orleans.

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Re:Tormenta tropical NATE 16L, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #21 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 06:41:49 am »
Nate ya es huracán

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Re:Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #22 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 10:17:34 am »
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

...HURRRICANE NATE BOOKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the
progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 86.5 West.  Nate is moving
toward the north-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
fast motion is expected to continue through late Saturday. A turn
toward the north is forecast Saturday night, followed by a turn
toward north-northeast on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Nate will move across the Gulf of Mexico overnight and on
Saturday, and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast
Saturday evening or Saturday night.

Reports from Air Force aircraft indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected through Saturday up until the
time Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reconnaisance
aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the tropical storm warning area in Mexico during the next few
hours.  Tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning
area in Cuba overnight, and are still possible in the watch area in
Cuba during the next few hours.

Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in
the hurricane warning area Saturday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area by Saturday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
Saturday night, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: In the United States, the combination of a dangerous
storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water is expected to reach the following heights
above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to
6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to
8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent
islands.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.
Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
afternoon over parts of the central Gulf Coast region.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Re:Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #23 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 10:22:50 am »
El ciclón #Nate se intensifica y pasa a huracan de #Cat1 y vientos de 130 Km/h
https://t.co/8MAe5xht9w

Enviado desde mi Aqua S9 Pro

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Re:Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #24 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 10:33:55 am »
#ERCC #DailyMap:
2017-10-06
Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Cyclone #NATE
https://t.co/tHOJ8VnFaL



Enviado desde mi Aqua S9 Pro
« Última modificación: Octubre 07, 2017, 10:36:52 am por CIEM »

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Re:Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #25 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 10:44:57 am »
Animación de imágenes IR+RGB de las últimas horas:


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Re:Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #26 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 11:14:14 am »
#Track y #Avisos por #HuracanNate para las próximas horas
Impactaría en 24/36 horas en #EEUU afectando a #Alabama y #Mississippi como huracán


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Re:Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #27 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 11:48:43 am »
Así se puede apreciar al #HuracanNate en #Cat1 y vientos de 130 Km/h desde el #GOES16 en estos momentos





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Re:Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #28 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 21:41:54 pm »
Imágenes del #GOES16 en #IR y #Visible del #HuracanNate en el límite de la #Cat1 con vientos de 150 Km/h
Toma de las 19 UTC




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Re:Huracan NATE 16L categoria 1, oeste Mar Caribe - Golfo de México, octubre 2017
« Respuesta #29 en: Octubre 07, 2017, 21:56:44 pm »
#Avisos emitidos por el #NHC por la llegada del #HuracanNate a #Louisiana en las próximas 12 horas






 



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