Buscas algun articulo o informacion? usa nuestro buscador
Síguenos también en:



Facebook


Autor Tema: Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017  (Leído 1568 veces)

Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« en: Noviembre 06, 2017, 15:02:15 pm »
Como no podía ser de otra manera debido a la persistencia de la convección, el INVEST95L ha pasado a ser la depresión tropical 19, y con posibilidades de que tome el siguiente nombre de la lista, que es RINA.

Citar
Adrian Linares‏ @Adriansweather  22 minHace 22 minutos
#TD19 forms over the open Atlantic. Expected to briefly intensify into TS #Rina later today.


Citar
Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits  47 minHace 47 minutos
Tropical Depression Nineteen has formed in the middle of the north Atlantic, and may strengthen a bit, but is no threat to land.



« Última modificación: Noviembre 07, 2017, 04:55:29 am por Gale »

Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Depresion tropical 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #1 en: Noviembre 06, 2017, 18:47:35 pm »
Interesante 2º abanico de productos sobre la DT19. Se indica que la inestabilidad atmosférica y su aumento de velocidad pueden hacer que el ambiente en el que está embebido se torne favorable para su intensificación. Es bastante probable que tome el nombre de RINA antes de extratropicalizarse en unos cuantos días...

Citar
000
WTNT44 KNHC 061433
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

The depression has a sheared appearance with the low-level center
exposed to the west of the mid-level center and the convective
bands.  A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that maximum winds
are near 30 kt, which is also in agreement with a Dvorak
classification from TAFB.  Based on these data, the initial wind
speed is held at 30 kt.

The depression has slowed down and turned to the left, with the
initial motion estimated to be 015/3 kt.  A faster north to
north-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days
while the system moves in the flow on the west side of a mid-level
ridge.  Thereafter, an even faster motion toward the northeast is
forecast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies.  The model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC
track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one to come
into agreement with the latest consensus models.

Although the environment ahead of the depression is not expected to
be particularly conducive for strengthening as a tropical system,
baroclinic enhancements and the expected faster forward speed
should cause the cyclone to gain some strength during the next
couple of days
.  The global models agree that the cyclone should
merge with a cold front by Wednesday evening, causing extratropical
transition.  The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually
weaken and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.  The guidance has trended a
little higher this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast follows
that trend and lies near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 29.5N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 30.8N  50.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 33.6N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 37.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 41.4N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 51.0N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z 57.0N  14.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Depresion tropical 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #2 en: Noviembre 06, 2017, 18:50:04 pm »
Animación de imágenes VIS del GOES-16. Se observa cómo el ciclón está cizallado, con el Centro de Circulación de Niveles Bajos, o LLCC expuesto, y la convección desplazada al este del primero.


Desconectado CIEM

  • Hurricane Hunters - Cazahuracanes
  • Tornado F1
  • *****
  • Mensajes: 548
    • CIEM
Re:Depresion tropical 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #3 en: Noviembre 06, 2017, 19:46:33 pm »
Imagen de la #TD19 de las 18 UTC en el #Atlántico que podría convertirse en #Rina


Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #4 en: Noviembre 07, 2017, 04:57:51 am »
Ya la tenemos aquí...........

Citar
Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017

Despite the low-level center being exposed to the west of the deep
convection, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 00Z and
01Z showed an area of 30-35 kt winds east of the cyclone's center.
Based on the ASCAT data, the depression is upgraded to a tropical
storm with the initial intensity set at 35 kt.
The rather
disorganized cloud pattern is consistent with the approximately 20
kt of westerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The
environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for
intensification via diabatic processes
, with the shear expected to
remain near 20 kt and the SSTs cooling along the forecast track.
After 24 to 36 hours, cooling upper-tropospheric temperatures and
increasing upper-level divergence
suggest that Rina will maintain
its intensity as it begins extratropical transition
, which should be
complete between by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and is close to the HWRF and HCCA aids.
The official forecast shows Rina dissipating by 96 hours in
agreement with global model fields.

The exposed low-level center and ASCAT passes result in high
confidence in the initial position, and Rina has begun to move
more steadily, with an initial motion estimate of 010/06. Rina
should continue to accelerate northward and north-northeastward
during the next 36 to 48 hours between a mid-level ridge to the east
and an upper-level trough to the west. After 48 hours, Rina is
forecast to accelerate further as it enters the mid-latitude
westerlies. The track model guidance has shifted left this cycle,
and the along-track spread is quite large by 72 hours, with the GFS
more than 500 n mi northeast of the ECMWF at that time. The new NHC
track forecast has been adjusted westward and a bit slower, and lies
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions to the east of the
TVCA multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than usual given the large model spread.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 30.4N  49.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 32.4N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 35.4N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 39.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 42.3N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 51.0N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Desconectado CIEM

  • Hurricane Hunters - Cazahuracanes
  • Tornado F1
  • *****
  • Mensajes: 548
    • CIEM
Re:Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #5 en: Noviembre 07, 2017, 09:19:05 am »
Ya tenemos a la #TS #Rina desarrollándose en el centro del #Atlántico


Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #6 en: Noviembre 07, 2017, 15:26:06 pm »
La apariencia satelital de RINA no parece indicar grandes mejoras organizativas del ciclón... y de hecho, se mantiene con los 35 KT de cuando fue ascendida a tormenta tropical...

No va a tener oportunidad de hacer mucho más, la verdad.

Citar
Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Rina's overall convective cloud pattern has increased is areal
coverage in the eastern semicircle, along with a little more deep
convection having developed near the well-defined low-level center.
In addition, drifting buoy 41506, located about 40 nmi northwest of
the center, reported a pressure of 1011.5 mb at 0600 UTC, and that
datum was used to estimate the central pressure of 1009 mb.
Satellite classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT remain at T2.5,
so the intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory, which
could be conservative given the lower central pressure.

The initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. As Rina moves
around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, the
cyclone should continue to accelerate toward the north today and
then toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. By 48 hours, Rina is
expected to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and
accelerate even more toward the northeast over the cold waters
of the north Atlantic. The NHC track guidance has shifted a little
more to left, so the new official forecast track has also been
nudged in that direction, close to consensus models TVCN and HCCA.

Based on GOES-16 ice physics satellite imagery, the inner-core of
Rina's circulation appears to have tightened up some and has also
become better defined. Some modest strengthening is forecast for
the next 36 h or so due to some baroclinic forcing associated with
an approaching vigorous shortwave trough currently located about 400
nmi to the west. By 48 h, the cyclone will be situated over water
temperatures colder than 20 deg C and within an environment of
increasing deep-layer wind shear. The combination of those two
negative factors are expected is result in Rina becoming an
extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
HCCA intensity consensus model, and also includes input from the
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 31.4N  49.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 33.7N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 37.0N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 40.4N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 44.4N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0600Z 53.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #7 en: Noviembre 08, 2017, 09:07:55 am »
Tal y como se indica en el último boletín de discusión sobre RINA, el ciclón parece haberse tornado más subtropical que tropical, aunque mantiene su clasificación por ahora como tormenta tropical. Las imágenes del satélite confirman esta metamorfosis.

Citar
Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017

Rina's satellite presentation has acquired some sub-tropical
characteristics
this evening as it interacts with a mid- to
upper-level trough to its west and southwest.
  The center remains
exposed to the south of the primary mass of convection, but the
convection has loosely wrapped around the northwestern portion of
the circulation which has lead to an increase in overall banding.
Recent ASCAT data shows that there has been an overall increase in
the size of the wind field and that the maximum winds have increased
to around 45 kt.  Rina is forecast to remain within an environment
of moderate shear and marginal instability during the next 24 hours,
however some additional strengthening is possible tonight and
Wednesday due to interaction with the aforementioned upper-level
trough.
  By early Thursday, Rina will be moving over much colder
waters and is forecast to become post-tropical.
  The cyclone should
become a fully extratropical low by late Thursday.

Rina continues to move northward or 010/16 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.  The cyclone
should turn north-northeastward around a large high pressure system
over the eastern Atlantic by late Wednesday, and then begin to
accelerate northeastward on Thursday when it becomes embedded within
strong mid-latitude flow.  The track guidance remains in fairly good
agreement and the NHC forecast is again near the various consensus
aids to account for some differences in forward speed among the
global models.  The cyclone is expected to dissipate along a frontal
zone over the far north Atlantic in about 72 hours or less.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 35.4N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 37.8N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 41.2N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 45.7N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  10/0000Z 51.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #8 en: Noviembre 08, 2017, 09:17:04 am »
Esta es la animación en la que puede apreciarse ese cambio...


Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #9 en: Noviembre 08, 2017, 16:41:38 pm »
El aspecto subtropical de RINA parece definitivo, aunque desde el CNH se estima que no es completamente subtropical y lo van a mantener como tormenta tropical.



Citar
Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

Rina continues to have some subtropical characteristics with
satellite images showing an asymmetric, comma-cloud structure.

Still, AMSU and model analyses are showing the system as moderately
warm core, and there are no signs of fronts near the core.  Thus,
Rina will stay as a tropical cyclone, and 50 kt is kept as the
initial wind speed based on the latest satellite estimates.  Little
change in strength is expected before Rina loses all deep convection
within the next 24 hours over chilly waters.  The system should
become embedded within a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in
a day or two, and dissipate west of Ireland.
No changes were made to
the previous intensity forecast.

The storm is moving northward a bit faster at 18 kt.  A continued
acceleration and a turn to the north-northeast is expected overnight
as Rina moves ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes.  The
cyclone should move quite rapidly to the northeast by late Thursday
and east-northeast on Friday due to strong mid-latitude flow.  The
westward guidance trend in the short-term part of the forecast
is still present, and the new NHC prediction is moved in that
direction in the first 24 hours, with little change thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 39.4N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 42.2N  47.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 47.1N  44.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  10/0000Z 52.5N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1200Z 55.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #10 en: Noviembre 09, 2017, 09:31:57 am »


RINA aún se mantiene como tormenta tropical pero, viendo la tendencia a disiparse en burst convectivo que ha acompañado al centro del ciclón durante la madrugada, yo creo que en la siguiente actualización del CNH RINA será declarada post-tropical.

Citar
Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017

A small area of deep convection persists near the center of Rina,
likely supported by very cold temperatures aloft and increasing
upper-level divergence overcoming SSTs less than 20C. The initial
intensity remains 45 kt based largely on continuity from the ASCAT
pass earlier today, as the latest ASCAT passes missed much of Rina's
circulation. Given the maintenance of deep convection, Rina remains
a tropical cyclone, but should not be one for long as vertical
shear is expected to increase above 30 kt and SSTs cool below 15C
along the forecast track in the next 12 hours. The cyclone should
become post-tropical by 12 hours and merge with a frontal zone by 24
hours. Post-tropical Rina should open up into a trough in 36 to 48
hours in the fast westerly flow over the north Atlantic. No change
in strength is forecast prior to dissipation, based on global model
guidance.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rina moved a little to the west of the
previous forecast track in the past few hours, but the cyclone now
appears to be moving north-northeastward or 020/20. The cyclone is
forecast to accelerate northeastward over the next 24 hours as it
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude flow, and an even faster east-
northeastward motion is expected on Friday prior to dissipation. The
new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left and is closer
to the ECMWF model in the short range, since that model has best
handled the recent motion of Rina. At 24 to 36 hours, the NHC
forecast lies to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids.

The track, intensity and structure forecasts of Rina during its
post-tropical phase have been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 42.5N  48.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 45.7N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  10/0000Z 51.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/1200Z 55.0N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Desconectado Gale

  • Webmaster - Admin
  • Tornado F5 (Dedo de Dios)
  • ******
  • Mensajes: 44.631
  • Age: 39
  • Ubicación: Salobreña - Playa, Costa Tropical, (Granada).
    • Cazatormentas.Net
Re:Tormenta tropical RINA 19L, Atlántico Central, noviembre 2017
« Respuesta #11 en: Noviembre 09, 2017, 13:11:12 pm »
RINA está pasando sus últimas horas como tormenta tropical... Cuesta ya bastante encontrarla de todo el mazacote nuboso que hay por la zona, correspondiente a un frente que no tardará en engullirla...


 



Buscas algun articulo o informacion? usa nuestro buscador