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Autor Tema: Gran huracán HARVEY 09L categoria 4, Atlántico W-Caribe-GOM, agosto 2017  (Leído 10287 veces)

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Las últimas imágenes del canal visible proporcionadas por el GOES-16 indican que el invest 91L está definiendo su circulación de niveles bajos y que la formación de una tormenta tropical antes de que acabe el día es muy probable.

Además, los pronósticos indican que conseguirá alcanzar la intensidad de huracán internándose en el Mar Caribe, lo que le convierte en un potencial peligro.

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 171440
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

Satellite imagery, including experimental 1-minute data from
GOES-16, indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area
east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better defined, and that a
cluster of strong convection has formed just west of the center.
Based on this and the potential for the system to become a tropical
storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, advisories are being
initiated as a potential tropical cyclone.
  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon, and it is likely the aircraft will find a tropical
cyclone has formed.

The initial motion is 270/15.  A deep-layer ridge to the north of
the system should steer it generally just north of due west through
the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system
through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in
24-36 h, into the central Caribbean by 72 h, and to the western
Caribbean by 96-120 h.  The forecast track lies near the center of
the tightly clustered guidance envelope and lies near the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through the forecast period.  This seems favorable for
strengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady,
intensification.  However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the
system to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean
Sea, possibly due to dry air entrainment.  The intensity forecast
follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the
GFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.1N  54.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0000Z 13.1N  56.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  18/1200Z 13.2N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 13.5N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 13.9N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 14.5N  74.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 15.5N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 17.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
« Última modificación: Agosto 27, 2017, 23:33:26 pm por Gale »

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Re:Ciclon tropical potencial 09 futuro HARVEY, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #1 en: Agosto 17, 2017, 17:30:29 pm »
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NHC Atlantic Ops‏Cuenta verificada @NHC_Atlantic  42 minHace 42 minutos
 Tropical Storm Warning in effect for portions of the Windward Islands for Potential Tropical Cyclone #Nine http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/171439.shtml

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #2 en: Agosto 17, 2017, 23:18:28 pm »
Ya la tenemos aquí... El avión cazahuracanes ha encontrado que el ciclón potencial 09 es tormenta tropical...

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 172048
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined
circulation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles,
with the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection.

The aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt
and that the central pressure is near 1004 mb.  Based on these
data, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey.

The initial motion is 270/16.  There is no change to the forecast
philosophy since the previous advisory.  A deep-layer ridge to the
north of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west
through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the
system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the
western Caribbean by 96-120 h.  One adjustment is that the 96-120 h
points have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in
the guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on
the previous forecast.  The forecast track again lies near the
center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through at least 72 h.  The conflicting forecast scenarios
alluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and
LGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and
ECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over
the central Caribbean.  The new intensity forecast again follows the
trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of
the guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h
intensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track
showing more land interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.0N  55.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 13.1N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 13.4N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 13.7N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 14.0N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 14.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 15.5N  83.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 17.0N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #3 en: Agosto 17, 2017, 23:19:48 pm »
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Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits  23 minHace 23 minutos
 Tropical Storm #Harvey has formed. Tropical Storm Warnings still in effect for Barbados and from the Grenadines to Martinique.

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #4 en: Agosto 17, 2017, 23:22:05 pm »
HARVEY es la 8ª tormenta nombrada de 2017... y solo hay 3 temporadas un número igual o superior 8 a estas alturas: 1936, 2005 y 2012... ¿significará una alta actividad en lo que queda de temporada? No tiene por qué, sinceramente. Pero queda mucha temporada por delante...

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Philip Klotzbach‏Cuenta verificada @philklotzbach  28 minHace 28 minutos
 #Harvey has formed in the tropical Atlantic - the 8th named storm of 2017.  The only other seasons with >=8 NS by 8/17 are 1936, 2005 & 2012
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/898286006603988993

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #5 en: Agosto 18, 2017, 09:07:19 am »
Pocos cambios en HARVEY durante la madrugada, aunque parece que la convección es más extensa e igualmente profunda. Parece existir todavía una cizalladura del este que está impidiendo una mayor organización.



Sea como fuere,la tormenta tropical está comenzando a afectar a las Antillas Menores donde se van a producir lluvias torrenciales.

« Última modificación: Agosto 18, 2017, 11:23:46 am por Gale »

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #6 en: Agosto 18, 2017, 10:36:12 am »
A estas horas, ni GFS ni el europeo desarrollan a HARVEY a corto plazo... solo el HWRF.





Eso sí, a largo plazo, el europeo se saca un potente y peligroso huracán en el GOM:


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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #7 en: Agosto 18, 2017, 12:46:47 pm »
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NHC_TAFB‏Cuenta verificada @NHC_TAFB  46 minHace 46 minutos
 T.S. Harvey will bring 8-13 ft seas to E Caribbean and Lesser Antilles through late today. See http://hurricanes.gov  for more info.

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #8 en: Agosto 18, 2017, 16:08:56 pm »
Imagen visible de alta resolución de HARVEY adquirida por el GOES-13. Con flechas, circulación de niveles bajos y cómo el ciclón está cizallado desde el este... Centro ubicado entre Barbados y San Vicente / Granadinas.


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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #9 en: Agosto 19, 2017, 10:46:33 am »
Desde que HARVEY es tormenta tropical, no ha habido muchos cambios en su estructura que, básicamente, consiste en explosiones convectivas intermitentes que mantienen a un gran Sistema Convectivo de Mesoescala asociado a un centro de circulación de niveles bajos...

Ya internado en aguas del Mar Caribe, a la espera de que la cizalladura se relaje un poco para lograr consolidarse e intensificarse en condiciones...


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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #10 en: Agosto 19, 2017, 17:38:22 pm »
HARVEY ha perdido organización durante el día de hoy, merced a una moderada cizalladura, y parece que a la existencia de aire seco que está erosionando la convección... El pan nuestro de cada día durante esta temporada y, como decía ayer Rafael Requena de AEMET, también afectando en numerosas ocasiones a las tormentas que se están formando en nuestro país...




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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #11 en: Agosto 19, 2017, 17:43:27 pm »
En este sentido...

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Greg Postel‏Cuenta verificada @GregPostel  52 minHace 52 minutos
 Arid surroundings apparently infiltrating #Harvey. Model soundings imply dewpoint depressions >20C (RH<20%) common thru deep layers nearby

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #12 en: Agosto 19, 2017, 23:37:50 pm »
Bueno... Pues el decaimiento de HARVEY ha continuado y casi se ha disuelto cual azucarillo en una taza de café ??? ??? ??? Ha sido degradada a depresión tropical... y quizás siendo generosos en el CNH.

Muchas dudas en si se logrará recuperar, habiendo quedado tan malograda hoy...

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 192034
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear.  The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone.
  Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression.  Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.

The intensity forecast is problematic.  The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening.  On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.


The initial motion remains 275/19.  There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track.   A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight.  At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 14.1N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 14.3N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 14.6N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 15.2N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 16.0N  83.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 18.0N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  24/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #13 en: Agosto 20, 2017, 10:08:21 am »
Su destrucción ha sido total, y ha acabado por convertirse en una simple onda tropical...

Se seguirá su evolución por probabilidades de regeneración antes de alcanzar la Península del Yucatán. Veremos!

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Re:Tormenta tropical HARVEY 09L, Atlántico Occidental - Caribe, agosto 2017
« Respuesta #14 en: Agosto 22, 2017, 19:36:36 pm »
Los restos de HARVEY a punto de entrar en el GOM, y ser una amenaza para Texas...

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Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx  3 minHace 3 minutos
 12z HWRF is 973mb on south Texas coast. #Harvey http://models.americanwx.com

 



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