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Autor Tema: Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018  (Leído 7531 veces)

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018

Even though the circulation is gradually becoming less elongated,
there is still relatively little deep convection near the estimated
center of circulation.  Instead, most of the convection remains
confined to the monsoon trough southwest of the center, where
low-level convergence is strongest.  Therefore, the system is not
quite yet being designated as a tropical cyclone.

Global model fields suggest that the low should detach from the
monsoon trough within the next 12 hours, which would likely allow
deep convection to form closer to the center.  Assuming that
happens, the system is also forecast to strengthen and become a
tropical storm by this afternoon while it approaches the southern
Cabo Verde Islands
.  Although vertical shear is expected to be
relatively light for much of the forecast period, sea surface
temperatures ahead of the system are marginal, and the low will
likely move over a minimum of oceanic heat content in 48-72 hours.
Adding on top of that a drier mid-level environment, only gradual
strengthening is anticipated through day 5.  A majority of the
intensity models agree on this scenario, with the exception of the
HWRF model, which brings the system close to major hurricane
strength at the end of the forecast period.  Since that solution is
discounted at the moment, the NHC intensity forecast is below the
HCCA guidance and closest to the intensity consensus.

The low appears to have turned west-northwestward with an initial
motion of 285/10 kt.  A mid-level high centered west of the Canary
Islands should continue to steer the disturbance west-northwestward
at a faster clip for the next 4 days or so.  By the end of the
forecast period, a weakness in the ridge over the eastern Atlantic
could cause the system to turn northwestward.  The new NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous one during the first
72 hours and then a little to the west on days 4 and 5 to better
match the latest guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 13.6N  21.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  31/1800Z 14.2N  23.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  01/0600Z 14.8N  25.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 15.5N  28.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 16.2N  30.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 17.4N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 19.0N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 21.5N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

« Última modificación: Septiembre 06, 2018, 11:23:59 am por Gale »

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Re:Ciclón tropical potencial VI, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #1 en: Agosto 31, 2018, 13:47:09 pm »
Evolución según el europeo... ojo, que entramos en época de GORDONs  ;D ;D ;D


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Re:Depresión tropical 06L, Atlántico - Cabo Verde - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #2 en: Agosto 31, 2018, 22:01:44 pm »
Parece que se van a iniciar ya los avisos sobre la Depresión Tropical 06L, futuro FLORENCE... :P

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Re:Tormenta tropical FLORENCE 06L, Atlántico - Cabo Verde - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #3 en: Septiembre 01, 2018, 18:29:06 pm »
Nace FLORENCE en la RDP oriental... ;)

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Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018

Satellite images indicate that Florence's cloud pattern has improved
in organization with the low-level center embedded within the
convection, and a cyclonically curved band surrounding the system. A
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers from TAFB, SAB, and
the UW-CIMMS yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.

My predecessor wrote a very clear explanation of the reasoning of
his track and intensity forecasts, and I do not think I can improve
on it. The environment continues to be mixed with favorable and
unfavorable conditions for Florence to strengthen. Currently,
the shear is low and favors strengthening, but the ocean along the
cyclone's forecast path is cooler. The latter condition should
inhibit significant intensification.
  After 3 days, the opposite is
anticipated -- the ocean will be warmer, but the shear will likely
be high. Only at the very long range could both factors become
favorable. The best option at this time is to show only a gradual
strengthening at the rate indicated by the intensity consensus aids.

Florence is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees
at 12 kt. No change in track is anticipated during the next 3 days
while Florence is located to the south of the subtropical ridge.
After that time, Florence will reach a break in the ridge causing
the cyclone to turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward
speed. The confidence in the forecast is high during the next 3 days
when the track guidance envelope is tightly packed. Thereafter, the
confidence is not so high since the envelope widens and becomes
bounded by the easternmost HWRF and the westernmost ECMWF models.
Since the guidance envelope shifted a little bit westward, the NHC
forecast was also adjusted slightly in that direction, primarily
during the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 14.8N  27.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 15.3N  29.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.1N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 16.5N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 17.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.0N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.0N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.5N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Re:Tormenta tropical FLORENCE 06L, Atlántico - Cabo Verde - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #4 en: Septiembre 01, 2018, 18:30:30 pm »
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Hurricane Tracker App
@hurrtrackerapp

Overnight EURO ensembles show the possible tracks of the potential gulf system next week and #Florence maybe getting much more west than initially thought. The entire Gulf coast should monitor the tropics closely next week and the E US needs to keep eyes on what #Florence does.

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Re:Tormenta tropical FLORENCE 06L, Atlántico - Cabo Verde - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #5 en: Septiembre 02, 2018, 13:26:16 pm »
Vaya bichejo.... seguimos tus post. Gracias.
Si no fuera por la Meteo...

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Re:Huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 1, Atlántico - Cabo Verde - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #6 en: Septiembre 04, 2018, 23:15:06 pm »
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Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018

Despite being over marginally warm water and in an environment of
moderate west-southwesterly shear, Florence's intensity has
increased during the day.  The hurricane has a cloud-filled eye in
visible imagery, and the central dense overcast is becoming more
symmetric.  Based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from TAFB and SAB,
and a SATCON estimate of 77 kt, the initial intensity is now,
somewhat surprisingly, 75 kt.  Since the current intensification
trend may not be over, the official forecast calls for Florence to
strengthen just a little more during the next 6-12 hours.  Even
though the hurricane will be moving over progressively warmer
waters, increasing vertical shear and dry air in the middle levels
of the atmosphere should induce some weakening in the 24-72 hour
time frame.  Lower shear after 72 hours will likely allow Florence
to regain hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period.
The NHC intensity forecast is primarily adjusted to account for the
recent strengthening trend, and is closest to the Florida State
Superensemble and HCCA guidance.

Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt.  This
trajectory is expected to continue through 36 hours while the
hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge.  After 36 hours, Florence is expected to turn northwestward
and slow down as it enters a break in the ridge.  The track models
are in good agreement and show little spread through 48 hours.  On
days 3-5, the biggest outlier is the UKMET, which lies to the south
of the guidance suite. In fact, the bulk of the models, including
the deterministic GFS and ECMWF, are all now showing a more
definitive poleward motion by day 5.  While the official NHC track
forecast reflects this thinking, there is still considerable spread
among the associated global model ensembles, and the longer-term
forecast should be considered low confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 20.3N  43.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 21.0N  44.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 22.1N  46.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 23.2N  48.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 24.3N  50.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 26.0N  53.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 27.5N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 29.5N  56.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Re:Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #7 en: Septiembre 06, 2018, 12:26:29 pm »
Hoy, en nuestra portada 🖥️ "El #HuracánFlorence #Florence ¡supera todas las espectactivas!. #Granizo de ¡¡7 cm!! en #AlbalateDelArzobispo, #Teruel" ➡️ http://lsh.re/1UEPC


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Re:Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #8 en: Septiembre 09, 2018, 10:41:00 am »
Florence, tras pasar unos pocos días de nuevo como tempestad tropical, se espera que en breve recupere la categoría de huracán e incluso pueda sufrir un proceso de RI...


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Re:Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #9 en: Septiembre 09, 2018, 18:15:55 pm »
FLORENCE, de nuevo huracán...

Tiene mala pinta para los intereses de la Costa Este de los USA...


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Re:Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #10 en: Septiembre 09, 2018, 18:17:18 pm »
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Philippe Papin
@pppapin

A lot have focused on the #Florence model battle b/w the ECMWF & GFS, but maybe the more important battle is to see how the new #FV3 performs vs. the #GFS.

06z runs were interesting because the #FV3 is weaker & further west compared to the op #GFS.

FV3 is similar to the ECMWF.



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Re:Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #11 en: Septiembre 09, 2018, 18:18:44 pm »
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Taylor Trogdon
@TTrogdon

Powerful key message from @NHC_Atlantic following their upgrading Florence to a hurricane: life-threatening impacts storm surge and freshwater flooding. Significant uncertainty still exists as to where the greatest impacts will occur. The southeast coast needs to prepare.

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Re:Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #12 en: Septiembre 09, 2018, 19:56:02 pm »
Estos pronósticos me recuerdan enormemente a lo que aconteció con el huracán Sandy, como el modelo ECMWF barrió en sus pronósticos al GFS, cuando el primero acertó en que tocaría tierra en la costa Este de EE.UU. y el americano ni lo olió... Muy interesantes los próximos días.
"Escápate de tu tiempo
al tiempo que no transcurre.
Pon tu mirada por
encima de tu yo, tu día, tu orden...
Yo-Día-Orden-Caos"

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Re:Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #13 en: Septiembre 09, 2018, 20:18:58 pm »
Estos pronósticos me recuerdan enormemente a lo que aconteció con el huracán Sandy, como el modelo ECMWF barrió en sus pronósticos al GFS, cuando el primero acertó en que tocaría tierra en la costa Este de EE.UU. y el americano ni lo olió... Muy interesantes los próximos días.

Justo, justo, justo... A mí me ha pasado lo mismo :P

Ojalá que no, pero esto huele a gran desastre. Menos mal que tienen tiempo de tomar medidas, evacuar zonas más sensibles...

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Re:Gran huracán FLORENCE 06L - categoría 4, Atlántico - RDP, agosto 2018
« Respuesta #14 en: Septiembre 09, 2018, 20:47:14 pm »
En la animación VIS - HIRE a partir de imágenes del #GOES16 se observa la rápida expansión de una corona de cirros radiales sobre el #HuracánFlorence #Florence #huracanflorence ¿Qué significa? ➡️ que el ciclón está "respirando" bien ➡️ intensificación muy probable


 



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